Azamat Murzakanov vs Paulo Costa
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-1-0Record16-4-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height6'0"
71"Reach72"
205 lbsWeight185 lbs
What's at stake
Azamat Murzakanov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Paulo Costa carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1794
If they lose-17→ 1762
If they win+17→ 1771
If they lose-15→ 1739
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1633 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1747 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Azamat MurzakanovPaulo Costa
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Paulo Costa51%
Azamat Murzakanov 49%Elo baseline: 46%
The Combat Edge model makes Paulo Costa a 51% favorite over Azamat Murzakanov in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Azamat Murzakanov's way (46%).
Azamat Murzakanov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1779 to 1754, a 25-point edge.
Paulo Costa enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Azamat Murzakanov finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Paulo Costa 81%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.