Azamat Murzakanov vs Paulo Costa
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Paulo Costa69%
Azamat Murzakanov 31%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Paulo Costa a 69% favorite over Azamat Murzakanov in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Azamat Murzakanov's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1758 vs 1754), separated by just 4 points.
Azamat Murzakanov enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Paulo Costa enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Azamat Murzakanov finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Paulo Costa 81%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
16-2-0Record16-4-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height6'0"
71"Reach72"
205 lbsWeight185 lbs
K Dojo Warrior Tribe· 1639 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamTeam Borracha
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1774
If they lose-16→ 1742
If they win+16→ 1770
If they lose-16→ 1738
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1657 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1747 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Azamat MurzakanovPaulo Costa