Bagama Nikabagamaev vs Brian Ortega
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-2-0Record16-5-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'7"Height5'9"
TBDReach69"
147 lbsWeight155 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1733
If they lose-16→ 1701
If they win+16→ 1731
If they lose-16→ 1699
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1560 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1776 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Bagama NikabagamaevBrian Ortega
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Brian Ortega66%
Bagama Nikabagamaev 34%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Brian Ortega a 66% favorite over Bagama Nikabagamaev in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Bagama Nikabagamaev's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1717 vs 1715), separated by just 2 points.
Bagama Nikabagamaev enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Brian Ortega enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Bagama Nikabagamaev finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Brian Ortega 69%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.