Combat Edge Intelligence

Bagama Nikabagamaev vs Michael Chandler

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

16-1-0Record23-11-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'7"Height5'8"
TBDReach71"
147 lbsWeight156 lbs
Fight Club SamsonTeamKill Cliff FC

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Bagama NikabagamaevNow 1730
If they win+16→ 1746
If they lose-16→ 1714
Michael ChandlerNow 1732
If they win+12→ 1744
If they lose-12→ 1720

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1524 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1771 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

Not available
Sig. strikes / min
4.04
Not available
Strike accuracy
50%
Not available
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.52
Not available
Strike defense
43%
Not available
Takedown avg.
1.96
Not available
Takedown accuracy
41%
Not available
Takedown defense
62%
Not available
Submission avg.
0.56

Trajectory

Bagama NikabagamaevMichael Chandler
1750202420252026

Win method breakdown

0 (0%)
KO/TKO
11 (48%)
13 (81%)
Submission
7 (30%)
3 (19%)
Decision
5 (22%)

Combat Edge model read

Michael Chandler69%
Bagama Nikabagamaev 31%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Michael Chandler a 69% favorite over Bagama Nikabagamaev in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1730 vs 1732), separated by just 2 points.

Michael Chandler enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Bagama Nikabagamaev finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Michael Chandler 78%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.