Combat Edge Intelligence

Bartosz Fabinski vs Garreth McLellan

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

16-6-0Record13-7-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'1"
TBDReach72,0"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
WCA Fight TeamTeamFightFit Militia

What's at stake

Bartosz Fabinski is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Garreth McLellan carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Bartosz FabinskiNow 1634
If they win+14→ 1648
If they lose-18→ 1616
Garreth McLellanNow 1583
If they win+18→ 1601
If they lose-14→ 1569

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1626 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1573 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.23
Sig. strikes / min
3.56
68%
Strike accuracy
54%
1.46
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.94
51%
Strike defense
45%
7.10
Takedown avg.
1.15
71%
Takedown accuracy
22%
80%
Takedown defense
35%
0
Submission avg.
0.86

Trajectory

Bartosz FabinskiGarreth McLellan
1600165020172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

8 (50%)
KO/TKO
3 (23%)
0 (0%)
Submission
9 (69%)
8 (50%)
Decision
1 (8%)

Combat Edge model read

Bartosz Fabinski72%
Garreth McLellan 28%Elo baseline: 57%

The Combat Edge model makes Bartosz Fabinski a 72% favorite over Garreth McLellan in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).

Bartosz Fabinski holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1634 to 1583, a 51-point edge.

Garreth McLellan enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Bartosz Fabinski finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Garreth McLellan 92%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.