Combat Edge Intelligence

Bia Mesquita vs Irina Alekseeva

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

8-0-0Record5-4-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'2"Height5'8"
66"Reach67"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
American Top TeamTeamRaty Team

What's at stake

Bia Mesquita is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Irina Alekseeva carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Bia MesquitaNow 1690
If they win+13→ 1703
If they lose-35→ 1655
Irina AlekseevaNow 1526
If they win+35→ 1561
If they lose-13→ 1513

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1536 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1538 · 9 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.78
Sig. strikes / min
4.01
60%
Strike accuracy
39%
0.64
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
5.03
81%
Strike defense
46%
4.81
Takedown avg.
0.47
75%
Takedown accuracy
20%
0%
Takedown defense
67%
3.21
Submission avg.
0.47

Trajectory

Bia MesquitaIrina Alekseeva
1550160016501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (14%)
KO/TKO
1 (20%)
6 (86%)
Submission
2 (40%)
0 (0%)
Decision
2 (40%)

Combat Edge model read

Bia Mesquita92%
Irina Alekseeva 8%Elo baseline: 72%

The Combat Edge model makes Bia Mesquita a 92% favorite over Irina Alekseeva in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (72%).

Bia Mesquita holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1690 to 1526, a 164-point edge.

Bia Mesquita enters on a 8-fight win streak.

Irina Alekseeva enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Bia Mesquita finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Irina Alekseeva 60%.

Bia Mesquita and Irina Alekseeva share 1 common opponent: Melissa Mullins.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.

Common opponents (1)

WinSubmission · 2026
Melissa Mullins
LossDecision - Unanimous · 2023