Bia Mesquita vs Melissa Mullins
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-0-0Record7-2-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'2"Height5'7"
66"Reach68"
135 lbsWeight138 lbs
American Top TeamTeamLions Gym Coventry
What's at stake
Bia Mesquita is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +18 while a loss costs more — Melissa Mullins carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1708
If they lose-30→ 1660
If they win+20→ 1614
If they lose-12→ 1582
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1536 · 8 fightsPre-fight Elo1579 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Bia MesquitaMelissa Mullins
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Bia Mesquita66%
Melissa Mullins 34%Elo baseline: 63%
The Combat Edge model makes Bia Mesquita a 66% favorite over Melissa Mullins in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).
Bia Mesquita holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1690 to 1594, a 96-point edge.
Bia Mesquita enters on a 8-fight win streak.
Melissa Mullins enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Bia Mesquita finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Melissa Mullins 57%.
Bia Mesquita and Melissa Mullins share 1 common opponent: Irina Alekseeva.
Melissa Mullins carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.