Combat Edge Intelligence

Bec Rawlings vs Lisa Ellis

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

8-9-0Record15-11-0
StrawweightDivisionStrawweight
5'6"Height5'4"
64,0"ReachTBD
116 lbsWeight110 lbs
Alliance MMATeamUnited Training Center

What's at stake

Lisa Ellis is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Bec Rawlings carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Bec RawlingsNow 1503
If they win+17→ 1520
If they lose-15→ 1488
Lisa EllisNow 1531
If they win+11→ 1542
If they lose-13→ 1518

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1563 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1560 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.48
Sig. strikes / min
1.68
43%
Strike accuracy
49%
5.66
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.32
57%
Strike defense
57%
0.71
Takedown avg.
4.19
40%
Takedown accuracy
64%
68%
Takedown defense
50%
0.36
Submission avg.
0.60

Trajectory

Bec RawlingsLisa Ellis
15001550201520162017201820192020

Win method breakdown

1 (13%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
4 (50%)
Submission
11 (73%)
3 (38%)
Decision
4 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

Bec Rawlings58%
Lisa Ellis 42%Elo baseline: 46%

The Combat Edge model makes Bec Rawlings a 58% favorite over Lisa Ellis in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Lisa Ellis's way (46%).

Lisa Ellis holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1531 to 1503, a 28-point edge.

Lisa Ellis enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Bec Rawlings finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Lisa Ellis 73%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.