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Combat Edge Intelligence

Bekzat Almakhan vs Rafael do Nascimento

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

12-4-0Record13-3-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'4"
68"Reach70"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Triumph FightsTeamX-Gym

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Bekzat AlmakhanNow 1665
If they win+16→ 1681
If they lose-16→ 1649
Rafael do NascimentoNow 1666
If they win+16→ 1682
If they lose-16→ 1650

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1585 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1563 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

1.61
Sig. strikes / min
Not available
34%
Strike accuracy
Not available
3.73
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
Not available
37%
Strike defense
Not available
0
Takedown avg.
Not available
0%
Takedown accuracy
Not available
42%
Takedown defense
Not available
0
Submission avg.
Not available

Trajectory

Bekzat AlmakhanRafael do Nascimento
160016501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

10 (83%)
KO/TKO
1 (8%)
1 (8%)
Submission
9 (69%)
1 (8%)
Decision
3 (23%)

Combat Edge model read

Bekzat Almakhan64%
Rafael do Nascimento 36%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Bekzat Almakhan a 64% favorite over Rafael do Nascimento in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Rafael do Nascimento's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1665 vs 1666), separated by just 1 points.

Bekzat Almakhan enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Rafael do Nascimento enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Bekzat Almakhan finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Rafael do Nascimento 77%.

Rafael do Nascimento carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.