Bekzat Almakhan vs Umar Nurmagomedov
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-4-0Record20-1-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'8"
68"Reach69"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Triumph FightsTeamEagles MMA· 1817 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
Umar Nurmagomedov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Bekzat Almakhan carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+23→ 1686
If they lose-9→ 1654
If they win+9→ 1831
If they lose-23→ 1799
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1579 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1718 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Bekzat AlmakhanUmar Nurmagomedov
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Umar Nurmagomedov81%
Bekzat Almakhan 19%Elo baseline: 71%
The Combat Edge model makes Umar Nurmagomedov a 81% favorite over Bekzat Almakhan in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (71%).
Umar Nurmagomedov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1822 to 1663, a 159-point edge.
Bekzat Almakhan enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Umar Nurmagomedov enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Bekzat Almakhan finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Umar Nurmagomedov 45%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.