Combat Edge Intelligence

Ben Earwood vs Victor Valenzuela

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-3-0Record14-4-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'8"Height5'9"
TBDReach71"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Miletich Martial ArtsTeamMMA Masters

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Ben EarwoodNow 1614
If they win+16→ 1630
If they lose-16→ 1598
Victor ValenzuelaNow 1613
If they win+16→ 1629
If they lose-16→ 1597

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1509 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1541 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

0.50
Sig. strikes / min
1.28
56%
Strike accuracy
100%
0.20
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.55
33%
Strike defense
0%
3
Takedown avg.
0
100%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
0%
Takedown defense
0%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Ben EarwoodVictor Valenzuela
155016001650200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

2 (20%)
KO/TKO
7 (50%)
6 (60%)
Submission
2 (14%)
2 (20%)
Decision
5 (36%)

Combat Edge model read

Victor Valenzuela59%
Ben Earwood 41%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Victor Valenzuela a 59% favorite over Ben Earwood in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Ben Earwood's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1614 vs 1613), separated by just 1 points.

Victor Valenzuela enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Ben Earwood finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Victor Valenzuela 64%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.