Ben Rothwell vs Marcos Rogerio de Lima
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
39-14-0Record22-9-1
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'1"
78"Reach75"
265 lbsWeight262 lbs
Rothwell MMATeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Ben Rothwell is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Marcos Rogerio de Lima carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1724
If they lose-13→ 1700
If they win+18→ 1690
If they lose-14→ 1658
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1685 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1686 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ben RothwellMarcos Rogerio de Lima
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Marcos Rogerio de Lima59%
Ben Rothwell 41%Elo baseline: 44%
The Combat Edge model makes Marcos Rogerio de Lima a 59% favorite over Ben Rothwell in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Ben Rothwell's way (44%).
Ben Rothwell holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1713 to 1672, a 41-point edge.
Ben Rothwell finishes 90% of wins inside the distance, Marcos Rogerio de Lima 82%.
Ben Rothwell and Marcos Rogerio de Lima share 3 common opponents: Stefan Struve, Andrei Arlovski and Blagoy Ivanov.
Ben Rothwell carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.