Ben Rothwell vs Stefan Struve
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Stefan Struve57%
Ben Rothwell 43%Elo baseline: 43%
The Combat Edge model makes Stefan Struve a 57% favorite over Ben Rothwell in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Ben Rothwell's way (43%).
Ben Rothwell holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1713 to 1665, a 48-point edge.
Stefan Struve enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Ben Rothwell finishes 90% of wins inside the distance, Stefan Struve 93%.
Ben Rothwell and Stefan Struve share 3 common opponents: Marcos Rogerio de Lima, Marcin Tybura and Andrei Arlovski.
Stefan Struve carries a 6-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
39-14-0Record29-13-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height7'0"
78"Reach84,5"
265 lbsWeight265 lbs
Rothwell MMATeamTeam Schrijber
What's at stake
Ben Rothwell is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Stefan Struve carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1723
If they lose-14→ 1699
If they win+14→ 1679
If they lose-10→ 1655
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1687 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1694 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Ben RothwellStefan Struve