Combat Edge Intelligence

Beneil Dariush vs Evan Dunham

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

23-8-1Record18-9-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'10"
72"Reach70,0"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Kings MMATeamXtreme Couture

What's at stake

Beneil Dariush is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Evan Dunham carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Beneil DariushNow 1745
If they win+9→ 1754
If they lose-15→ 1730
Evan DunhamNow 1670
If they win+15→ 1685
If they lose-9→ 1661

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1764 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1667 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.78
Sig. strikes / min
5.33
49%
Strike accuracy
39%
2.62
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.54
58%
Strike defense
62%
2.11
Takedown avg.
1.82
38%
Takedown accuracy
33%
82%
Takedown defense
80%
0.82
Submission avg.
0.98

Trajectory

Beneil DariushEvan Dunham
1650170017501800201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (22%)
KO/TKO
3 (17%)
8 (35%)
Submission
6 (33%)
10 (43%)
Decision
9 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Beneil Dariush79%
Evan Dunham 21%Elo baseline: 61%

The Combat Edge model makes Beneil Dariush a 79% favorite over Evan Dunham in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).

Beneil Dariush holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1745 to 1670, a 75-point edge.

Beneil Dariush enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Evan Dunham enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Beneil Dariush finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Evan Dunham 50%.

Beneil Dariush carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.