Combat Edge Intelligence

Benson Henderson vs Gilbert Melendez

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

30-13-0Record22-8-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'9"
70"Reach73,0"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
MMA LabTeamSkrap Pack

What's at stake

Gilbert Melendez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Benson Henderson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Benson HendersonNow 1719
If they win+13→ 1732
If they lose-11→ 1708
Gilbert MelendezNow 1740
If they win+11→ 1751
If they lose-13→ 1727

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1660 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1727 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.93
Sig. strikes / min
3.44
46%
Strike accuracy
33%
1.79
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.53
64%
Strike defense
63%
2.40
Takedown avg.
1.64
46%
Takedown accuracy
41%
64%
Takedown defense
72%
0.79
Submission avg.
0.20

Trajectory

Benson HendersonGilbert Melendez
170017502017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (17%)
KO/TKO
12 (55%)
9 (30%)
Submission
0 (0%)
16 (53%)
Decision
10 (45%)

Combat Edge model read

Benson Henderson62%
Gilbert Melendez 38%Elo baseline: 47%

The Combat Edge model makes Benson Henderson a 62% favorite over Gilbert Melendez in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Gilbert Melendez's way (47%).

Gilbert Melendez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1740 to 1719, a 21-point edge.

Benson Henderson enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Gilbert Melendez enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Benson Henderson finishes 47% of wins inside the distance, Gilbert Melendez 55%.

Gilbert Melendez carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.