Combat Edge Intelligence

Benson Henderson vs Nate Diaz

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

30-13-0Record21-14-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height6'0"
70"Reach76"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
MMA LabTeamCesar Gracie Fight Team

What's at stake

Benson Henderson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Nate Diaz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Benson HendersonNow 1719
If they win+10→ 1729
If they lose-14→ 1705
Nate DiazNow 1674
If they win+14→ 1688
If they lose-10→ 1664

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1660 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1728 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.93
Sig. strikes / min
4.57
46%
Strike accuracy
45%
1.79
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.77
64%
Strike defense
53%
2.40
Takedown avg.
1.05
46%
Takedown accuracy
31%
64%
Takedown defense
42%
0.79
Submission avg.
1.29

Win method breakdown

5 (17%)
KO/TKO
5 (24%)
9 (30%)
Submission
12 (57%)
16 (53%)
Decision
4 (19%)

Combat Edge model read

Benson Henderson53%
Nate Diaz 47%Elo baseline: 56%

The Combat Edge model makes Benson Henderson a 53% favorite over Nate Diaz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).

Benson Henderson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1719 to 1674, a 45-point edge.

Benson Henderson enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Benson Henderson finishes 47% of wins inside the distance, Nate Diaz 81%.

Nate Diaz carries a 6-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.