Benson Henderson vs Nate Diaz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
30-13-0Record21-14-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height6'0"
70"Reach76"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
MMA LabTeamCesar Gracie Fight Team
What's at stake
Benson Henderson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Nate Diaz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1731
If they lose-14→ 1707
If they win+14→ 1687
If they lose-10→ 1663
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1666 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1727 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Nate Diaz51%
Benson Henderson 49%Elo baseline: 43%
The Combat Edge model makes Nate Diaz a 51% favorite over Benson Henderson in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Benson Henderson's way (43%).
Benson Henderson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1721 to 1673, a 48-point edge.
Benson Henderson enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Benson Henderson finishes 47% of wins inside the distance, Nate Diaz 81%.
Nate Diaz carries a 6-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.