Bill Algeo vs Kyle Nelson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-9-0Record17-7-1
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'11"
73"Reach 71"
146 lbsWeight149 lbs
Team Titan PATeamHouse of Champions MMA
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1676
If they lose-12→ 1652
If they win+12→ 1681
If they lose-12→ 1657
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1675 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1670 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Bill AlgeoKyle Nelson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kyle Nelson63%
Bill Algeo 37%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Kyle Nelson a 63% favorite over Bill Algeo in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1664 vs 1669), separated by just 5 points.
Bill Algeo enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Bill Algeo finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Kyle Nelson 59%.
Bill Algeo and Kyle Nelson share 1 common opponent: Doo Ho Choi.
Bill Algeo carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.