Bill Duvall vs Marcio Alexandre Junior
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
1-2-0Record16-5-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'1"
TBDReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Iron Horse GymTeamAstra Fight Team
What's at stake
Marcio Alexandre Junior is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +23 while a loss costs more — Bill Duvall carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+25→ 1472
If they lose-23→ 1424
If they win+23→ 1490
If they lose-25→ 1442
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1486 · 2 fightsPre-fight Elo1659 · 2 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Bill DuvallMarcio Alexandre Junior
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Bill Duvall and Marcio Alexandre Junior within a point of even.
Marcio Alexandre Junior holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1467 to 1447, a 20-point edge.
Bill Duvall enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Marcio Alexandre Junior enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Marcio Alexandre Junior 88%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.