Combat Edge Intelligence

Billy Quarantillo vs Spike Carlyle

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Spike Carlyle
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Spike Carlyle

“The Alpha Ginger”

15-6-0LightweightRFF

1680Good

Tale of the tape

18-8-0Record15-6-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'8"
70"Reach39,0"
145 lbsWeight156 lbs
Gracie Tampa SouthTeamKings MMA· 1672 avg Elo · 7 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Billy QuarantilloNow 1668
If they win+12→ 1680
If they lose-12→ 1656
Spike CarlyleNow 1680
If they win+15→ 1695
If they lose-17→ 1663

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1691 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1616 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

7.44
Sig. strikes / min
2.55
55%
Strike accuracy
54%
5.83
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.85
43%
Strike defense
30%
1.47
Takedown avg.
3.34
2%
Takedown accuracy
37%
61%
Takedown defense
57%
1.02
Submission avg.
0.48

Trajectory

Billy QuarantilloSpike Carlyle
1650170020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

8 (44%)
KO/TKO
6 (40%)
5 (28%)
Submission
8 (53%)
5 (28%)
Decision
1 (7%)

Combat Edge model read

Billy Quarantillo59%
Spike Carlyle 41%Elo baseline: 48%

The Combat Edge model makes Billy Quarantillo a 59% favorite over Spike Carlyle in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Spike Carlyle's way (48%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1668 vs 1680), separated by just 12 points.

Billy Quarantillo enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Billy Quarantillo finishes 72% of wins inside the distance, Spike Carlyle 93%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.