Blake Bilder vs Kyle Nelson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-2-1Record17-7-1
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'11"
TBDReach 71"
145 lbsWeight149 lbs
Spartan Martial ArtsTeamHouse of Champions MMA
What's at stake
Kyle Nelson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Blake Bilder carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1658
If they lose-15→ 1626
If they win+11→ 1681
If they lose-13→ 1657
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1559 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1672 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Blake BilderKyle Nelson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kyle Nelson73%
Blake Bilder 27%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Kyle Nelson a 73% favorite over Blake Bilder in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Kyle Nelson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1670 to 1641, a 29-point edge.
Blake Bilder enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Blake Bilder finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Kyle Nelson 59%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.