Combat Edge Intelligence

Bo Nickal vs Luke Rockhold

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

9-1-0Record16-6-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'3"
76"Reach77"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
American Top Team Happy ValleyTeamAmerican Kickboxing Academy

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Bo NickalNow 1744
If they win+16→ 1760
If they lose-16→ 1728
Luke RockholdNow 1742
If they win+16→ 1758
If they lose-16→ 1726

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1633 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1736 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.35
Sig. strikes / min
4.10
61%
Strike accuracy
50%
2.07
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.68
60%
Strike defense
54%
3.10
Takedown avg.
0.70
56%
Takedown accuracy
29%
100%
Takedown defense
65%
2.48
Submission avg.
1.01

Trajectory

Bo NickalLuke Rockhold
170017502023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (44%)
KO/TKO
6 (38%)
4 (44%)
Submission
8 (50%)
1 (11%)
Decision
2 (13%)

Combat Edge model read

Bo Nickal73%
Luke Rockhold 27%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Bo Nickal a 73% favorite over Luke Rockhold in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1744 vs 1742), separated by just 2 points.

Bo Nickal enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Luke Rockhold enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Bo Nickal finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Luke Rockhold 88%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.