Bo Nickal vs Paul Craig
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
9-1-0Record17-10-1
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'4"
76"Reach76"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
American Top Team Happy ValleyTeamScottish Hit Squad
What's at stake
Bo Nickal is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Paul Craig carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+12→ 1756
If they lose-20→ 1724
If they win+15→ 1677
If they lose-9→ 1653
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1633 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1714 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Bo NickalPaul Craig
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Bo Nickal92%
Paul Craig 8%Elo baseline: 62%
The Combat Edge model makes Bo Nickal a 92% favorite over Paul Craig in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).
Bo Nickal holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1744 to 1662, a 82-point edge.
Bo Nickal enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Paul Craig enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Bo Nickal finishes 89% of wins inside the distance, Paul Craig 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.