Bogdan Grad vs Lucas Alexander
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
15-4-0Record8-5-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height5'11"
70"Reach73"
145 lbsWeight148 lbs
ETTL Bros. MMATeamFusion X-Cel Performance
What's at stake
Bogdan Grad is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Lucas Alexander carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1688
If they lose-21→ 1656
If they win+21→ 1597
If they lose-11→ 1565
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1569 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1573 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Bogdan GradLucas Alexander
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Bogdan Grad68%
Lucas Alexander 32%Elo baseline: 64%
The Combat Edge model makes Bogdan Grad a 68% favorite over Lucas Alexander in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).
Bogdan Grad holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1677 to 1576, a 101-point edge.
Bogdan Grad enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Lucas Alexander enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Bogdan Grad finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Lucas Alexander 38%.
Lucas Alexander carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.