Combat Edge Intelligence

Bogdan Grad vs Nik Bagley

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Bogdan Grad
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Bogdan Grad

“The Unleashed”

16-4-0FeatherweightUFC

1692Good
Nik Bagley
gb-eng

Nik Bagley

“The Perfectionist”

10-1-0FeatherweightCWFC

1694Good

Tale of the tape

16-4-0Record10-1-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height5'8"
70"Reach-
145 lbsWeight146 lbs
ETTL Bros. MMATeamGreat Britain Top Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Bogdan GradNow 1692
If they win+16→ 1708
If they lose-16→ 1676
Nik BagleyNow 1694
If they win+16→ 1710
If they lose-16→ 1678

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1579 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1539 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.06
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
52%
Strike accuracy
TBD
5.06
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
49%
Strike defense
TBD
4.22
Takedown avg.
TBD
41%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
75%
Takedown defense
TBD
0
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Bogdan GradNik Bagley
160016501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

9 (56%)
KO/TKO
1 (10%)
4 (25%)
Submission
7 (70%)
3 (19%)
Decision
2 (20%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Bogdan Grad and Nik Bagley within a point of even.

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1692 vs 1694), separated by just 2 points.

Nik Bagley enters on a 7-fight win streak.

Bogdan Grad finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Nik Bagley 80%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.