Bogdan Grad vs Nik Bagley
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-4-0Record10-1-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'8"Height5'8"
70"Reach-
145 lbsWeight146 lbs
ETTL Bros. MMATeamGreat Britain Top Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1709
If they lose-16→ 1677
If they win+16→ 1710
If they lose-16→ 1678
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1580 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1539 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Bogdan GradNik Bagley
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Bogdan Grad58%
Nik Bagley 42%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Bogdan Grad a 58% favorite over Nik Bagley in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Nik Bagley's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1693 vs 1694), separated by just 1 points.
Nik Bagley enters on a 7-fight win streak.
Bogdan Grad finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Nik Bagley 80%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.