Combat Edge Intelligence

Bogdan Guskov vs Jan Błachowicz

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-3-0 Record 29-11-0
Light Heavyweight Division Light Heavyweight
6'2" Height 6'2"
76" Reach 78"
205 lbs Weight 205 lbs
GOR MMA Team WCA Fight Team

What's at stake

Jan Błachowicz is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Bogdan Guskov carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Bogdan GuskovNow 1733
If they win+17→ 1750
If they lose-15→ 1718
Jan BłachowiczNow 1748
If they win+11→ 1759
If they lose-13→ 1735

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Tracked stat edges

3.87
Sig. strikes / min
3.55
51%
Strike accuracy
50%
3.40
Strikes absorbed / min Lower is better
3.14
50%
Strike defense
52%
0
Takedown avg.
0.98
TBD
Takedown accuracy
31%
50%
Takedown defense
69%
0
Submission avg.
0.36

Trajectory

Bogdan Guskov Jan Błachowicz
1650 1700 1750 2023 2024 2025

Win method breakdown

15 (83%)
KO/TKO
9 (31%)
3 (17%)
Submission
9 (31%)
0 (0%)
Decision
11 (38%)

Combat Edge model read

Bogdan Guskov67%
Jan Błachowicz33%Elo baseline: 48%

The Combat Edge model makes Bogdan Guskov a 67% favorite over Jan Błachowicz in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Jan Błachowicz's way (48%).

Jan Błachowicz holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1748 to 1733, a 15-point edge.

Bogdan Guskov finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Jan Błachowicz 62%.

Jan Błachowicz carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.