Jan Błachowicz vs Bogdan Guskov

Aug 1, 2026 · PARAMOUNT+

Combat Edge model forecast29%Jan Błachowicz71%Bogdan GuskovFull forecast

DateAug 1, 2026

DivisionFight card

StatusScheduled

VenueBelgrade Arena

BroadcastPARAMOUNT+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, August 1, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET): Sat 1:00 PM
US West (PT): Sat 10:00 AM
United Kingdom: Sat 6:00 PM
Central Europe: Sat 7:00 PM
Australia (Sydney): Sun 3:00 AM
Your time

Jan Błachowicz29-12-2Jan Błachowicz vs Bogdan GuskovBogdan Guskov18-4-1

Jan Błachowicz29-12-2

Fight Overview

Round3

Time5:00

29-12-2Record18-4-1

43Age34

6'2"Height6'2"

78"Reach76"

205 lbsWeight205 lbs

Fight cardWeight ClassFight card

Bogdan Guskov18-4-1

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Jan Błachowicz owns a 14-point Elo edge (good). Jan Błachowicz shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. 2 shared opponents give extra context.

Compare Jan Błachowicz and Bogdan Guskov across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Jan BłachowiczBogdan Guskov

Recent form

Jan BłachowiczL D L L L · -49 Elo last 5

LDLLL

Bogdan GuskovL D W W W · +43 Elo last 5

LDWWW

Elo edge

Jan Błachowicz1733-15 last move

Bogdan Guskov1719-13 last move

Why they are ranked here

Jan Błachowicz#17 of 162 active Light Heavyweight fighters · 1733 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Dominick Reyes (rated 1756 at the time): +15.
Costliest loss: Lost to Navajo Stirling (rated 1741 at the time): -15.
Last 5 fights: 0 wins, 4 losses, -49 Elo in total.
Next places: 3 points behind #16 Rasul Magomedov, 3 ahead of #18 Luke Trainer.

Bogdan Guskov#23 of 162 active Light Heavyweight fighters · 1719 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Ryan Spann (rated 1703 at the time): +21.
Costliest loss: Lost to Volkan Oezdemir (rated 1676 at the time): -20.
Last 5 fights: 3 wins, 1 loss, +43 Elo in total.
Next places: 1 point behind #22 Volkan Oezdemir, 6 ahead of #24 Dovlet Yagshimuradov.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.5-2026-07-01

29%Jan Błachowicz71%Bogdan Guskov

Model favoriteBogdan Guskov

Elo baseline48% for Bogdan Guskov

Matchup adjustment+23 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

See all predictions →Back Bogdan GuskovStake

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model flips Elo

The full model flips the Elo-only lean: Bogdan Guskov is 71%, after Elo alone favored Jan Błachowicz at 52%.

Current Elo ratings1733 · 1719Jan Błachowicz leads by 14 rating points.

Recent opponent quality1761 · 1627Jan Błachowicz faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).

Elo record depth42 · 22 fightsJan Błachowicz has the deeper counted Elo history.

Largest tracked stat edgesJan Błachowicz 3 · 1 Bogdan GuskovStrongest available gap: Takedown average toward Jan Błachowicz.

What's at stake

Jan BłachowiczNow 1733 · #17 Light Heavyweight

Wins by decision+12→ 1745

Loses by decision-12→ 1721

Bogdan GuskovNow 1719 · #23 Light Heavyweight

Wins by decision+17→ 1736

Loses by decision-15→ 1704

What-if simulatorPremium

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Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Jan BłachowiczvsBogdan Guskov

Takedown average

0.98vs0

Submission average

0.36vs0

Takedown defense

69%vs50%

Sig. strikes landed per min

3.55vs3.87

Finishing profile

Jan Błachowiczdecision leads 38% of wins

Bogdan GuskovKO/TKO leads 83% of wins

Common opponents

Magomed Ankalaev Jan Błachowicz: draw · Draw (split) · Dec 10, 2022 Bogdan Guskov: loss · TKO (punches) · Jul 25, 2026

Nikita Krylov Jan Błachowicz: win · Submission (Arm Triangle Choke) · Sep 15, 2018 Bogdan Guskov: win · KO (punches) · Jul 26, 2025

Tale of the tape

Jan BłachowiczBogdan Guskov

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

3.55Sig. strikes landed per min3.87

UFC light heavyweight average : 4.00

50Sig. strike accuracy51

UFC light heavyweight average : 50%

3.14Sig. strikes absorbed per min3.40

UFC light heavyweight average : 3.73

52Sig. strike defense50

UFC light heavyweight average : 51%

0.98Takedown average0

UFC light heavyweight average : 1.37

31Takedown accuracyNot available

UFC light heavyweight average : 26%

69Takedown defense50

UFC light heavyweight average : 58%

0.36Submission average0

UFC light heavyweight average : 0.59

9Wins by knockout15

9Wins by submission3

11Wins by decision0

3Losses by knockout2

2Losses by submission1

7Losses by decision1

Jan Błachowicz vs Bogdan Guskov is a scheduled Fight card fight on UFC FIGHT NIGHT : MEDIC VS RODRIGUEZ. Jan Błachowicz enters with a 29-12-2 record and Bogdan Guskov enters with a 18-4-1 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.