Bolaji Oki vs Manoel Sousa
Records, Elo, stats and the Combat Edge model read, side by side.
Combat Edge model read
Manoel Sousa73%
Bolaji Oki 27%Elo baseline: 68%
The Combat Edge model makes Manoel Sousa a 73% favorite over Bolaji Oki in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (68%).
Manoel Sousa holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1758 to 1626, a 132-point edge.
Bolaji Oki enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Manoel Sousa enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Bolaji Oki finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Manoel Sousa 80%.
Bolaji Oki carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Tale of the tape
10-5-0Record15-1-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'10"
73"Reach70"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
What's at stake
Manoel Sousa is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Bolaji Oki carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+22→ 1648
If they lose-10→ 1616
If they win+10→ 1768
If they lose-22→ 1736
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1618 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1601 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Bolaji OkiManoel Sousa