Brad Katona vs Jean Matsumoto
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-5-0Record18-2-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'6"
64"Reach68"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
SBG IrelandTeamInside Muay Thai
What's at stake
Jean Matsumoto is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Brad Katona carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+21→ 1669
If they lose-11→ 1637
If they win+11→ 1765
If they lose-21→ 1733
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1615 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1627 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Brad KatonaJean Matsumoto
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jean Matsumoto92%
Brad Katona 8%Elo baseline: 65%
The Combat Edge model makes Jean Matsumoto a 92% favorite over Brad Katona in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).
Jean Matsumoto holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1754 to 1648, a 106-point edge.
Brad Katona enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Brad Katona finishes 29% of wins inside the distance, Jean Matsumoto 50%.
Brad Katona and Jean Matsumoto share 1 common opponent: Bekzat Almakhan.
Jean Matsumoto carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.