Brad Katona vs Jesse Butler
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-5-0Record12-6-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'10"
64"Reach40,0"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
SBG IrelandTeamFortis MMA
What's at stake
Brad Katona is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Jesse Butler carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1669
If they lose-18→ 1637
If they win+18→ 1625
If they lose-14→ 1593
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1634 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1551 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Brad KatonaJesse Butler
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Brad Katona63%
Jesse Butler 37%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Brad Katona a 63% favorite over Jesse Butler in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Brad Katona holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1655 to 1607, a 48-point edge.
Brad Katona enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Jesse Butler enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Brad Katona finishes 29% of wins inside the distance, Jesse Butler 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.