Brad Riddell vs Magomed Mustafaev
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-4-0Record14-3-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'9"
71"ReachTBD
156 lbsWeight155 lbs
City KickboxingTeamFight Club Akhmat· 1680 avg Elo · 29 rated
What's at stake
Magomed Mustafaev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Brad Riddell carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1667
If they lose-13→ 1635
If they win+13→ 1720
If they lose-19→ 1688
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1633 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1611 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Brad RiddellMagomed Mustafaev
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Magomed Mustafaev55%
Brad Riddell 45%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Magomed Mustafaev a 55% favorite over Brad Riddell in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Magomed Mustafaev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1707 to 1648, a 59-point edge.
Brad Riddell enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Brad Riddell finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Magomed Mustafaev 100%.
Brad Riddell and Magomed Mustafaev share 1 common opponent: Rafael Fiziev.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.