Brad Riddell vs Magomed Mustafaev
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
10-4-0Record14-3-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'9"
71"ReachTBD
156 lbsWeight155 lbs
City KickboxingTeamFight Club Akhmat
What's at stake
Magomed Mustafaev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Brad Riddell carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1666
If they lose-14→ 1634
If they win+14→ 1713
If they lose-18→ 1681
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1632 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1594 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Brad RiddellMagomed Mustafaev
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Magomed Mustafaev60%
Brad Riddell 40%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Magomed Mustafaev a 60% favorite over Brad Riddell in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Magomed Mustafaev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1699 to 1648, a 51-point edge.
Brad Riddell enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Brad Riddell finishes 50% of wins inside the distance, Magomed Mustafaev 100%.
Brad Riddell and Magomed Mustafaev share 1 common opponent: Rafael Fiziev.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.