Combat Edge Intelligence

Brad Tavares vs Riki Fukuda

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

21-12-0Record24-9-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'11"Height6'0"
74"ReachTBD
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamGrabaka

What's at stake

Brad Tavares is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Riki Fukuda carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Brad TavaresNow 1698
If they win+11→ 1709
If they lose-13→ 1685
Riki FukudaNow 1670
If they win+13→ 1683
If they lose-11→ 1659

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1695 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1550 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.41
Sig. strikes / min
4.67
44%
Strike accuracy
46%
3.32
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.45
55%
Strike defense
64%
0.70
Takedown avg.
2.60
25%
Takedown accuracy
45%
80%
Takedown defense
70%
0
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Brad TavaresRiki Fukuda
165017001750201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (24%)
KO/TKO
12 (50%)
2 (10%)
Submission
0 (0%)
14 (67%)
Decision
12 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Brad Tavares70%
Riki Fukuda 30%Elo baseline: 54%

The Combat Edge model makes Brad Tavares a 70% favorite over Riki Fukuda in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).

Brad Tavares holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1698 to 1670, a 28-point edge.

Brad Tavares enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Brad Tavares finishes 33% of wins inside the distance, Riki Fukuda 50%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.