Brady Hiestand vs Rinya Nakamura
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
8-2-0Record10-1-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'8"Height5'7"
71"Reach68"
135 lbsWeight136 lbs
What's at stake
Rinya Nakamura is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Brady Hiestand carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1678
If they lose-14→ 1646
If they win+14→ 1725
If they lose-18→ 1693
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1558 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1597 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Brady HiestandRinya Nakamura
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rinya Nakamura58%
Brady Hiestand 42%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Rinya Nakamura a 58% favorite over Brady Hiestand in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Rinya Nakamura holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1711 to 1660, a 51-point edge.
Brady Hiestand enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Brady Hiestand finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Rinya Nakamura 70%.
Brady Hiestand and Rinya Nakamura share 1 common opponent: Fernie Garcia.
Brady Hiestand carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.