UFC FIGHT NIGHT : ROSAS JR. VS BARCELOS

Brady Hiestand vs Rinya Nakamura

EventUFC FIGHT NIGHT : ROSAS JR. VS BARCELOS
DateSep 26, 2026
DivisionBantamweight
StatusScheduled
VenueMeta APEX
BroadcastPARAMOUNT+
Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Saturday, September 26, 2026 — watch on PARAMOUNT+.

US East (ET)
Sat 6:00 PM
US West (PT)
Sat 3:00 PM
United Kingdom
Sat 11:00 PM
Central Europe
Sun 12:00 AM
Australia (Sydney)
Sun 8:00 AM

Brady Hiestand vs Rinya Nakamura is a scheduled Bantamweight fight on UFC FIGHT NIGHT : ROSAS JR. VS BARCELOS . Brady Hiestand enters with a 8-2-0 record and Rinya Nakamura enters with a 10-1-0 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.

Brady Hiestand vs Rinya Nakamura quick answers

When is Brady Hiestand vs Rinya Nakamura?

Brady Hiestand vs Rinya Nakamura is listed for UFC FIGHT NIGHT : ROSAS JR. VS BARCELOS on Sep 26, 2026 at 6:00 PM EST.

What event is Brady Hiestand vs Rinya Nakamura on?

Brady Hiestand vs Rinya Nakamura is listed on UFC FIGHT NIGHT : ROSAS JR. VS BARCELOS .

What are the records for Brady Hiestand vs Rinya Nakamura?

Brady Hiestand enters with a 8-2-0 record and Rinya Nakamura enters with a 10-1-0 record.

What division is Brady Hiestand vs Rinya Nakamura?

Brady Hiestand vs Rinya Nakamura is listed as a Bantamweight fight.

Brady HiestandBam Bam |8-2-0Brady Hiestand vs Rinya NakamuraRinya NakamuraHybrid |10-1-0
usBrady HiestandBam Bam8-2-0Brady Hiestandus

Fight Overview

Round3
Time5:00
8-2-0Record10-1-0
27Age31
5'8"Height5'7"
71"Reach68"
135 lbsWeight136 lbs
BantamweightWeight ClassBantamweight
jpRinya NakamuraHybrid10-1-0jpRinya Nakamura
Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Rinya Nakamura owns a 51-point Elo edge (good). Neither side shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. 1 shared opponent give extra context.

Compare Brady Hiestand and Rinya Nakamura across their careers →

Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Brady HiestandRinya Nakamura
1600165017002022202320242025

Recent form

Brady HiestandW W W L W · +89 Elo last 5
WWWLW
Rinya NakamuraW L W W W · +59 Elo last 5
WLWWW

Elo edge

Brady Hiestand1660+28 last move
Rinya Nakamura1711+17 last move
Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

Combat Edge Model

Fight forecast

Frozen pre-fight · v0.7-2026-08-28
44%Brady Hiestand56%Rinya Nakamura
Model favoriteRinya Nakamura
Elo baseline57% for Rinya Nakamura
Matchup adjustment-1 pts vs Elo

Win probability computed before the fight from point-in-time Elo, records, and matchup data. The baseline shows what Elo alone expected; the adjustment is not a certainty. Analytics, not betting advice.

Sponsored — betting partner link. 19+ (18+ where permitted). Please play responsibly.

Forecast context

What separates the fighters

Model + Elo agree

Rinya Nakamura leads the full model at 56%. Elo agrees, and the complete matchup model softens that lean by 1 point.

Current Elo ratings1660 · 1711Rinya Nakamura leads by 51 rating points.
Recent opponent quality1558 · 1597Rinya Nakamura faced the stronger recent schedule (10 vs 10 sampled fights).
Elo record depth10 · 11 fightsRinya Nakamura has the deeper counted Elo history.
Largest tracked stat edgesBrady Hiestand 2 · 2 Rinya NakamuraStrongest available gap: Takedown accuracy toward Brady Hiestand.

Stat advantages

Brady HiestandvsRinya Nakamura
Takedown accuracy
15%vs0%
Takedown defense
43%vs100%
Sig. strikes absorbed per min
3.75vs1.72
Takedown average
4.80vs2.58

Finishing profile

Brady HiestandKO/TKO leads 38% of wins
Rinya NakamuraKO/TKO leads 60% of wins

Tale of the tape

Brady HiestandRinya Nakamura
2.70Sig. strikes landed per min3.27
UFC bantamweight average : 3.72
51Sig. strike accuracy52
UFC bantamweight average : 45%
3.75Sig. strikes absorbed per min1.72
UFC bantamweight average : 3.76
51Sig. strike defense64
UFC bantamweight average : 54%
4.80Takedown average2.58
UFC bantamweight average : 1.50
15Takedown accuracy0
UFC bantamweight average : 30%
43Takedown defense100
UFC bantamweight average : 61%
1.07Submission average1.43
UFC bantamweight average : 0.50
3Wins by knockout6
3Wins by submission1
2Wins by decision3
1Losses by knockout0
0Losses by submission0
1Losses by decision1

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