Brandon Jenkins vs Welisson Paiva
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-12-0Record12-6-1
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'10"
71"Reach-
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Syndicate MMATeamMaster Kombat
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1573
If they lose-16→ 1541
If they win+16→ 1573
If they lose-16→ 1541
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1562 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1551 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Brandon JenkinsWelisson Paiva
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Brandon Jenkins52%
Welisson Paiva 48%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Brandon Jenkins a 52% favorite over Welisson Paiva in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1557 vs 1557), separated by just 0 points.
Welisson Paiva enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Brandon Jenkins finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Welisson Paiva 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.