Brandon Royval vs Matheus Nicolau
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-9-0Record19-5-1
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'7"Height5'6"
68"Reach66"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Factory XTeamNova Uniao
What's at stake
Brandon Royval is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Matheus Nicolau carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1721
If they lose-14→ 1697
If they win+18→ 1680
If they lose-14→ 1648
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1726 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1643 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Brandon RoyvalMatheus Nicolau
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Brandon Royval70%
Matheus Nicolau 30%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Brandon Royval a 70% favorite over Matheus Nicolau in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Brandon Royval holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1711 to 1662, a 49-point edge.
Matheus Nicolau enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Brandon Royval finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Matheus Nicolau 53%.
Brandon Royval and Matheus Nicolau share 2 common opponents: Manel Kape and Matt Schnell.
Brandon Royval carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.