Combat Edge Intelligence

Brett Rogers vs Josh Parisian

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

17-10-0Record15-8-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'5"Height6'4"
TBDReach79"
262 lbsWeight266 lbs
TBDTeamScorpion Fighting System

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Brett RogersNow 1573
If they win+12→ 1585
If they lose-12→ 1561
Josh ParisianNow 1575
If they win+16→ 1591
If they lose-16→ 1559

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1556 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1602 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
4.55
TBD
Strike accuracy
48%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.88
TBD
Strike defense
41%
TBD
Takedown avg.
0.98
TBD
Takedown accuracy
33%
TBD
Takedown defense
46%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.20

Trajectory

Brett RogersJosh Parisian
15501600165020132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

15 (88%)
KO/TKO
11 (73%)
0 (0%)
Submission
2 (13%)
2 (12%)
Decision
2 (13%)

Combat Edge model read

Josh Parisian53%
Brett Rogers 47%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Josh Parisian a 53% favorite over Brett Rogers in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1573 vs 1575), separated by just 2 points.

Josh Parisian enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Brett Rogers finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Josh Parisian 87%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.