Combat Edge Intelligence

Brian Foster vs Matt Brown

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Matt Brown
us

Matt Brown

“The Immortal”

24-19-0WelterweightUFC

1607Solid

Tale of the tape

30-13-0Record24-19-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height6'0"
TBDReach75"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Factory XTeamImmortal Fight Team

What's at stake

Brian Foster is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Matt Brown carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Brian FosterNow 1633
If they win+11→ 1644
If they lose-13→ 1620
Matt BrownNow 1607
If they win+13→ 1620
If they lose-11→ 1596

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1618 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1645 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.30
Sig. strikes / min
3.76
40%
Strike accuracy
55%
1.63
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.92
65%
Strike defense
55%
3.67
Takedown avg.
1.68
60%
Takedown accuracy
47%
38%
Takedown defense
64%
1.83
Submission avg.
1.30

Trajectory

Brian FosterMatt Brown
16001650202420252026

Win method breakdown

15 (50%)
KO/TKO
16 (67%)
14 (47%)
Submission
6 (25%)
1 (3%)
Decision
2 (8%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Brian Foster and Matt Brown within a point of even.

Brian Foster holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1633 to 1607, a 26-point edge.

Brian Foster finishes 97% of wins inside the distance, Matt Brown 92%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.