Brian Kelleher vs Marlon Vera
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-16-0Record23-12-1
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'8"
66"Reach 70"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Maxum BJJTeamTeam Oyama· 1645 avg Elo · 6 rated
What's at stake
Marlon Vera is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Brian Kelleher carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1650
If they lose-9→ 1626
If they win+9→ 1719
If they lose-15→ 1695
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1660 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1749 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Brian KelleherMarlon Vera
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Marlon Vera79%
Brian Kelleher 21%Elo baseline: 61%
The Combat Edge model makes Marlon Vera a 79% favorite over Brian Kelleher in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).
Marlon Vera holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1710 to 1635, a 75-point edge.
Brian Kelleher enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Marlon Vera enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Brian Kelleher finishes 75% of wins inside the distance, Marlon Vera 78%.
Marlon Vera carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.