Combat Edge Intelligence

Brian Melancon vs Kelvin Gastelum

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

7-3-0Record20-11-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'8"Height5'9"
TBDReach71"
170 lbsWeight185 lbs
Paradigm Training CenterTeamFight Ready

What's at stake

Kelvin Gastelum is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Brian Melancon carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Brian MelanconNow 1586
If they win+31→ 1617
If they lose-17→ 1569
Kelvin GastelumNow 1693
If they win+8→ 1701
If they lose-16→ 1677

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1580 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1715 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.18
Sig. strikes / min
3.67
49%
Strike accuracy
42%
3.64
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.53
65%
Strike defense
57%
2.02
Takedown avg.
1.01
100%
Takedown accuracy
34%
67%
Takedown defense
60%
0
Submission avg.
0.09

Trajectory

Brian MelanconKelvin Gastelum
1550160016501700201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (57%)
KO/TKO
6 (30%)
1 (14%)
Submission
5 (25%)
2 (29%)
Decision
9 (45%)

Combat Edge model read

Kelvin Gastelum78%
Brian Melancon 22%Elo baseline: 65%

The Combat Edge model makes Kelvin Gastelum a 78% favorite over Brian Melancon in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).

Kelvin Gastelum holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1693 to 1586, a 107-point edge.

Brian Melancon finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Kelvin Gastelum 55%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.