Brian Ortega vs Cub Swanson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-5-0Record31-14-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'8"
69"Reach70"
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Black HouseTeamUFC Gym Costa Mesa
What's at stake
Cub Swanson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Brian Ortega carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1733
If they lose-15→ 1701
If they win+11→ 1759
If they lose-13→ 1735
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1776 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1677 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Brian OrtegaCub Swanson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Cub Swanson57%
Brian Ortega 43%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Cub Swanson a 57% favorite over Brian Ortega in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Cub Swanson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1748 to 1716, a 32-point edge.
Brian Ortega enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Cub Swanson enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Brian Ortega finishes 69% of wins inside the distance, Cub Swanson 61%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.