Combat Edge Intelligence

Brock Lesnar vs Guilherme Pat

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

5-3-0Record6-2-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'3"Height6'5"
81"Reach80"
265 lbsWeight265 lbs
Team Death ClutchTeamLotus Club

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Brock LesnarNow 1590
If they win+24→ 1614
If they lose-24→ 1566
Guilherme PatNow 1594
If they win+24→ 1618
If they lose-24→ 1570

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1648 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1538 · 8 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.53
Sig. strikes / min
2.70
72%
Strike accuracy
62%
2.11
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.03
51%
Strike defense
52%
3.90
Takedown avg.
0
55%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
60%
Takedown defense
100%
0.49
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Brock LesnarGuilherme Pat
160016502017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (60%)
KO/TKO
4 (67%)
1 (20%)
Submission
0 (0%)
1 (20%)
Decision
2 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Guilherme Pat62%
Brock Lesnar 38%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Guilherme Pat a 62% favorite over Brock Lesnar in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1590 vs 1594), separated by just 4 points.

Guilherme Pat enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Brock Lesnar finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Guilherme Pat 67%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.