Bruno Souza vs Nik Bagley
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-4-0Record9-1-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'8"
70"Reach-
145 lbsWeight146 lbs
Machida TeamTeamGreat Britain Top Team
What's at stake
Nik Bagley is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Bruno Souza carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1682
If they lose-15→ 1650
If they win+15→ 1709
If they lose-17→ 1677
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1545 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1539 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Bruno SouzaNik Bagley
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Nik Bagley54%
Bruno Souza 46%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Nik Bagley a 54% favorite over Bruno Souza in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Nik Bagley holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1694 to 1665, a 29-point edge.
Bruno Souza enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Nik Bagley enters on a 7-fight win streak.
Bruno Souza finishes 27% of wins inside the distance, Nik Bagley 80%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.