Bryan Baker vs Joel Alvarez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-6-0Record23-5-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'3"Height6'2"
TBDReach77"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Team Wildman Vale TudoTeamBandog Fight Club
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1712
If they lose-16→ 1680
If they win+16→ 1715
If they lose-16→ 1683
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1673 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1705 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Bryan BakerJoel Alvarez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Joel Alvarez84%
Bryan Baker 16%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Joel Alvarez a 84% favorite over Bryan Baker in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1696 vs 1699), separated by just 3 points.
Bryan Baker enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Joel Alvarez enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Bryan Baker finishes 61% of wins inside the distance, Joel Alvarez 96%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.