Bryan Barberena vs Colby Covington
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-12-0Record17-5-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'11"
72"Reach72"
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Gym-OTeamMMA Masters
What's at stake
Colby Covington is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Bryan Barberena carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1644
If they lose-7→ 1620
If they win+10→ 1775
If they lose-22→ 1743
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1675 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1776 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Bryan BarberenaColby Covington
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Colby Covington72%
Bryan Barberena 28%Elo baseline: 69%
The Combat Edge model makes Colby Covington a 72% favorite over Bryan Barberena in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (69%).
Colby Covington holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1765 to 1627, a 138-point edge.
Bryan Barberena enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Colby Covington enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Bryan Barberena finishes 72% of wins inside the distance, Colby Covington 47%.
Bryan Barberena and Colby Covington share 2 common opponents: Rafael dos Anjos and Robbie Lawler.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.