Combat Edge Intelligence

Bryan Barberena vs Gerald Meerschaert

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-12-0Record37-22-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'1"
72"Reach 77"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Gym-OTeamKill Cliff FC

What's at stake

Gerald Meerschaert is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Bryan Barberena carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Bryan BarberenaNow 1627
If they win+13→ 1640
If they lose-11→ 1616
Gerald MeerschaertNow 1650
If they win+11→ 1661
If they lose-13→ 1637

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1675 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1688 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.35
Sig. strikes / min
3.01
48%
Strike accuracy
45%
4.59
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.52
44%
Strike defense
53%
0.13
Takedown avg.
1.82
22%
Takedown accuracy
30%
50%
Takedown defense
43%
0.27
Submission avg.
1.38

Trajectory

Bryan BarberenaGerald Meerschaert
1650170020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

11 (61%)
KO/TKO
6 (16%)
2 (11%)
Submission
29 (78%)
5 (28%)
Decision
2 (5%)

Combat Edge model read

Gerald Meerschaert57%
Bryan Barberena 43%Elo baseline: 53%

The Combat Edge model makes Gerald Meerschaert a 57% favorite over Bryan Barberena in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).

Gerald Meerschaert holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1650 to 1627, a 23-point edge.

Bryan Barberena enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Gerald Meerschaert enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Bryan Barberena finishes 72% of wins inside the distance, Gerald Meerschaert 95%.

Gerald Meerschaert carries a 5-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.