Combat Edge Intelligence

Bryan Barberena vs Gunnar Nelson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

18-12-0Record19-6-1
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'11"
72"Reach72"
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Gym-OTeamMjolnir

What's at stake

Gunnar Nelson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Bryan Barberena carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Bryan BarberenaNow 1627
If they win+15→ 1642
If they lose-9→ 1618
Gunnar NelsonNow 1709
If they win+12→ 1721
If they lose-20→ 1689

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1675 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1716 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.35
Sig. strikes / min
1.77
48%
Strike accuracy
61%
4.59
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.06
44%
Strike defense
49%
0.13
Takedown avg.
2
22%
Takedown accuracy
52%
50%
Takedown defense
68%
0.27
Submission avg.
1

Trajectory

Bryan BarberenaGunnar Nelson
165017002022202320242025

Win method breakdown

11 (61%)
KO/TKO
4 (21%)
2 (11%)
Submission
13 (68%)
5 (28%)
Decision
2 (11%)

Combat Edge model read

Gunnar Nelson70%
Bryan Barberena 30%Elo baseline: 62%

The Combat Edge model makes Gunnar Nelson a 70% favorite over Bryan Barberena in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).

Gunnar Nelson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1709 to 1627, a 82-point edge.

Bryan Barberena enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Bryan Barberena finishes 72% of wins inside the distance, Gunnar Nelson 89%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.