Bryan Barberena vs Joe Ellenberger
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-12-0Record15-2-0
MiddleweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'8"
72"Reach72,0"
185 lbsWeight155 lbs
Gym-OTeamPremier Combat Center
What's at stake
Joe Ellenberger is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Bryan Barberena carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1641
If they lose-10→ 1617
If they win+13→ 1698
If they lose-19→ 1666
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1675 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1545 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Bryan BarberenaJoe Ellenberger
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Joe Ellenberger66%
Bryan Barberena 34%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Joe Ellenberger a 66% favorite over Bryan Barberena in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Joe Ellenberger holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1685 to 1627, a 58-point edge.
Bryan Barberena enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Bryan Barberena finishes 72% of wins inside the distance, Joe Ellenberger 80%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.