Bryan Barberena vs Robbie Lawler
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-12-0Record30-16-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'11"
72"Reach74"
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Gym-OTeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
Robbie Lawler is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Bryan Barberena carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1644
If they lose-7→ 1620
If they win+7→ 1795
If they lose-17→ 1771
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1675 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1760 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Bryan BarberenaRobbie Lawler
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Robbie Lawler78%
Bryan Barberena 22%Elo baseline: 72%
The Combat Edge model makes Robbie Lawler a 78% favorite over Bryan Barberena in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (72%).
Robbie Lawler holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1788 to 1627, a 161-point edge.
Bryan Barberena enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Bryan Barberena finishes 72% of wins inside the distance, Robbie Lawler 77%.
Bryan Barberena and Robbie Lawler share 1 common opponent: Rafael dos Anjos.
Robbie Lawler carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.