Bryan Caraway vs Dustin Neace
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
22-9-0Record25-21-1
BantamweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'9"
68,0"ReachTBD
135 lbsWeight146 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamDamage Incorporated
What's at stake
Bryan Caraway is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Dustin Neace carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+6→ 1689
If they lose-18→ 1665
If they win+18→ 1526
If they lose-6→ 1502
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1651 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1509 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Bryan CarawayDustin Neace
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Bryan Caraway65%
Dustin Neace 35%Elo baseline: 73%
The Combat Edge model makes Bryan Caraway a 65% favorite over Dustin Neace in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (73%).
Bryan Caraway holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1683 to 1508, a 175-point edge.
Bryan Caraway finishes 82% of wins inside the distance, Dustin Neace 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.