THE ULTIMATE FIGHTER 14 FINALE : Michael Bisping VS Jason Miller

Bryan Caraway vs Dustin Neace

Dec 4, 2011 · ESPN+

DateDec 4, 2011

DivisionFeatherweight

StatusScheduled

VenueThe Pearl

BroadcastESPN+

Start times & how to watch

Start time & how to watch

Main card starts Sunday, December 4, 2011 — watch on ESPN+.

US East (ET): Sun 8:00 PM
US West (PT): Sun 5:00 PM
United Kingdom: Mon 1:00 AM
Central Europe: Mon 2:00 AM
Australia (Sydney): Mon 12:00 PM
Your time

Bryan CarawayKid Lightning |22-9-0Bryan Caraway vs Dustin NeaceDustin NeaceThe Beast |25-21-1

Bryan CarawayKid Lightning22-9-0

Fight Overview

RoundTBD

Time00:03:38

22-9-0Record25-21-1

42Age40

5'9"Height5'9"

68,0"ReachTBD

135 lbsWeight146 lbs

FeatherweightWeight ClassFeatherweight

Dustin NeaceThe Beast25-21-1

Combat Edge Intelligence

Fight Intelligence

Bryan Caraway owns a 175-point Elo edge (good). Bryan Caraway shows more surface-level statistical edges across the tracked UFC categories. 2 shared opponents give extra context.

Compare Bryan Caraway and Dustin Neace across their careers →

Elo Recent career Elo trajectory

Recent three-year Elo paths for both fighters. Ratings shown here are current career context; the event-specific prediction or verified result remains on this Fight page.

Bryan CarawayDustin Neace

Recent form

Bryan CarawayW L L W W · +3 Elo last 5

WLLWW

Dustin NeaceL W L W L · -10 Elo last 5

LWLWL

Elo edge

Bryan Caraway1683+5 last move

Dustin Neace1508-14 last move

Why they are ranked here

Bryan CarawayNot on the active ladder · 1683 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Mitch Gagnon (rated 1644 at the time): +20.
Costliest loss: Lost to Takeya Mizugaki (rated 1635 at the time): -15.
Last 5 fights: 3 wins, 2 losses, +3 Elo in total.
Inactivity: Placed on 1593, not 1683: 90 points are held back after more than 18 months without a fight, until the next one.

Dustin NeaceNot on the active ladder · 1508 Elo

Biggest gain: Beat Bobby Emmons (rated 1500 at the time): +14.
Costliest loss: Lost to David Love (rated 1419 at the time): -19.
Last 5 fights: 2 wins, 3 losses, -10 Elo in total.
Inactivity: Placed on 1418, not 1508: 90 points are held back after more than 18 months without a fight, until the next one.

Every rated fight moves a rating by an amount set by the opponent's rating at the time, the result and how it ended. Places are counted among fighters active in the last 24 months. How the rating is calculated

Fight intelligence

Model forecast and your pick

Inspect the model’s probability and Elo baseline, then make your own call before the card starts.

What's at stake

Bryan CarawayNow 1683

Wins by decision+6→ 1689

Loses by decision-18→ 1665

Dustin NeaceNow 1508

Wins by decision+18→ 1526

Loses by decision-6→ 1502

What-if simulatorPremium

Pick the winner and how the fight ends to see both new ratings, both new division ranks, and who each fighter would pass.

The simulator is part of Combat Edge Premium, with zero ads, 30 Ask Stats questions a month and CSV exports.

Go Premium to run it

Projected with the same rules as the rankings, at today's ratings. Split decisions move ratings less and finishes more.

Stat advantages

Bryan CarawayvsDustin Neace

Takedown average

2.57vs0

Takedown accuracy

26%vs0%

Takedown defense

81%vs0%

Submission average

0.75vs1.74

Finishing profile

Bryan Carawaysubmission leads 73% of wins

Dustin Neacesubmission leads 80% of wins

Common opponents

Johnny Bedford Bryan Caraway: win · Guillotine Choke · Apr 27, 2013Dustin Neace: win · Nov 22, 2008

Johnny Bedford Bryan Caraway: win · Guillotine Choke · Apr 27, 2013Dustin Neace: win · Nov 25, 2006

Tale of the tape

Bryan CarawayDustin Neace

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

2.53Sig. strikes landed per min2.08

UFC bantamweight average : 3.72

34Sig. strike accuracy33

UFC bantamweight average : 45%

3.61Sig. strikes absorbed per min2.66

UFC bantamweight average : 3.75

54Sig. strike defense57

UFC bantamweight average : 54%

2.57Takedown average0

UFC bantamweight average : 1.51

26Takedown accuracy0

UFC bantamweight average : 26%

81Takedown defense0

UFC bantamweight average : 61%

0.75Submission average1.74

UFC bantamweight average : 0.52

2Wins by knockout5

16Wins by submission20

4Wins by decision0

2Losses by knockout5

2Losses by submission11

5Losses by decision5

Bryan Caraway vs Dustin Neace is a scheduled Featherweight fight on THE ULTIMATE FIGHTER 14 FINALE : Michael Bisping VS Jason Miller. Bryan Caraway enters with a 22-9-0 record and Dustin Neace enters with a 25-21-1 record. Combat Edge tracks the matchup preview, UFC stats, Elo edge, shared opponents, event date, venue, and full fight card.