Bryce Mitchell vs Edson Barboza
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-3-0Record24-14-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'11"
70"Reach75"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Barata MMATeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Bryce Mitchell is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Edson Barboza carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+12→ 1788
If they lose-20→ 1756
If they win+15→ 1697
If they lose-9→ 1673
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1700 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1724 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Bryce MitchellEdson Barboza
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Bryce Mitchell92%
Edson Barboza 8%Elo baseline: 63%
The Combat Edge model makes Bryce Mitchell a 92% favorite over Edson Barboza in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).
Bryce Mitchell holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1776 to 1682, a 94-point edge.
Bryce Mitchell enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Edson Barboza enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Bryce Mitchell finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Edson Barboza 63%.
Bryce Mitchell and Edson Barboza share 1 common opponent: Dan Ige.
Edson Barboza carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.