Combat Edge Intelligence

Bryce Mitchell vs Edson Barboza

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

19-3-0Record24-15-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'11"
70"Reach75"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Barata MMATeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

Bryce Mitchell is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Edson Barboza carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Bryce MitchellNow 1776
If they win+11→ 1787
If they lose-21→ 1755
Edson BarbozaNow 1669
If they win+16→ 1685
If they lose-8→ 1661

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1700 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1725 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.27
Sig. strikes / min
4.14
59%
Strike accuracy
45%
1.60
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.68
59%
Strike defense
56%
3.24
Takedown avg.
0.43
36%
Takedown accuracy
32%
33%
Takedown defense
73%
1.19
Submission avg.
0.08

Trajectory

Bryce MitchellEdson Barboza
165017001750202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (5%)
KO/TKO
14 (58%)
10 (53%)
Submission
1 (4%)
8 (42%)
Decision
9 (38%)

Combat Edge model read

Bryce Mitchell79%
Edson Barboza 21%Elo baseline: 65%

The Combat Edge model makes Bryce Mitchell a 79% favorite over Edson Barboza in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).

Bryce Mitchell holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1776 to 1669, a 107-point edge.

Bryce Mitchell enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Edson Barboza enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Bryce Mitchell finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Edson Barboza 63%.

Edson Barboza carries a 5-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.